Market updates and rates week of June 30

Rate sheet "influential" mortgages are experiencing modest price losses after Greek lawmakers agreed to implement aggressive austerity measures Thursday morning. Based on the market's reaction to this news, this was a widely expected outcome. This stabilization is somewhat comforting but not enough to stop a corrective rally before the long weekend. This paints a less positive picture for bonds over the next few days. After failing on multiple occasions to extend the two-month bond rally, traders are feeling technically exhausted. The path of least resistance is up for interest rates, at least in the short-term. That puts pricing in a defensive posture for the next 10 to 20 days. The market predictors are not ready to change the outlook for lower rates by the end of the summer. Remember, this happened last year, which supports the long standing view that "history is repeating itself" in the bond market. In times like these, the value of analyzing Mortgage Backed Securities charts greatly decreases and underlying benchmarks become much more important. Thursday morning the bond market came into the day as close to "on the edge" of the recent range as it could be. Long story short, the breakout has now been confirmed after looking indecisive leading up to 9:45 AM Chicago PMI data. After that, the snowball began. Volume ramped up, and yields moved sharply. The market reached its next major technical level for 10 year yields, and in terms of "history repeating itself" is an analogous level to how things happened in 2008. If history continues repeating, more volatility is in store--BIG swings.

30 year fixed - 4.625% - .250% points for rate
20 year fixed - 4.375% - 0 points for rate
15 year fixed - 3.750% 0 points for rate
10 year fixed - 3.375% 0 points for rate
5/1 ARM - 3.00% - 0 points for rate
7/1 ARM - 3.50% - 0 -points for rate
10/1 ARM - 4.125 % 0 points for rate
Jumbo - over 729,000
30 year fixed - 4.99% +.50 points for rate
30 year fixed - 5.125% - 0 points for rate
15 year fixed - 4.625 % - 0 points for rate
5/1 ARM - 3.750% - 0 points for rate
7/1 ARM - 4.250% - 0 points for rate
10/1 ARM - 4.625% 0 points for rate