unemployment numbers and mortgage rates

The latest look at Initial Jobless Claims showed that 502,000 individuals filed for unemployment for the first time last week. The number was slightly better than expectations of 510,000 and the lowest reading in 10 months – and Continuing Claims for Unemployment benefits fell by 139,000 to 5.63M. But again – we find it simply amazing that the media and others talk about the “good news” – when it is really anything but.

Let’s remember that over a HALF MILLION people every week are still losing their jobs – finding “good news” in that kind of report is like being excited that the tornado which leveled your home managed to miss the gardening shed out in the backyard. And it’s not just the media…President Obama said this morning that the Continuing Claims number moving lower is “encouraging”, but as we have explained many times, this number is likely moving lower as people are running out of Unemployment benefits before they have found a job. We expect this number to move significantly higher now that Unemployment benefits have been extended with the new legislation.

Speaking of the President, he addressed the nation this morning and said that during December, he will hold a forum of CEO’s, small business owners, Labor Union leaders and more to discuss what has to be done to create jobs. Since the recession began in December of 2007 there have been 7.3 Million jobs lost. And even in the face of all the economic stimulus, the economy has still lost nearly 3 Million jobs just this year – a far cry than what the administration had projected of a creation of 3.2 Million jobs. That’s a miss of over 6 Million jobs.

Some good news on the foreclosure front - filings slowed for a 3rd straight month, signaling that a recovery could be in the making…but a sustained recovery just won’t happen until the job market gets better.

At 1pm ET, the Treasury will auction off $16B in 30-year Bonds. And as always, the results of this auction could have an impact on the Bond market later today.

Tuesday's Alert to Lock helped avoid some re-prices for the worse or lower pricing this morning, but we will start the day by Floating. The auction at 1pm could shake things up, so stay tuned.